Marketexpress
Growing treasury support due to Greek deadlock
We see increasing support for treasuries in current investor behaviour. Investor confidence continues to decline, short and medium term momentum is building and flows remain supportive.
Greece puts a spoke in investors’ wheels
For the calendar year 2012 we maintain our positive stance for global equities in our Tactical Asset Allocation. However, for the short term we decided to reduce our position in global equities to neutral.
Why global equity markets are struggling
In 2010 and 2011, global equities peaked end April and declined afterwards - 16% in 2010 and 24% in 2011. Although the current situation has parallels, the differences seem far more important. We retain our positive equity stance.
Real estate underpinned by improving macro outlook
The global macroeconomic outlook is constructive for real estate equities (RE). The reappearance of sovereign stress in the Eurozone, coupled with fears of a prolonged recession in this region, is the main risk factor for RE as an asset class. We have a neutral stance on RE.
Chinese economy is in a transitory phase
Recently, our Global Emerging Markets equity strategist, Maarten-Jan Bakkum, was in China. We summarize his views. In our Tactical Asset Allocation we maintain our small overweight in emerging markets equities.
Not the end of the upward trend
A combination of fading liquidity momentum, falling data surprises and renewed sovereign stress has led to an increase in risk aversion. We do however not believe that this is the end of the upward trend in financial markets.
Traditional solutions to unprecedented problems
Renewed market volatility confirms that the Eurozone crisis continues to linger on. Old-fashioned policy solutions are part of the problem as it seems that the right diagnosis has still not been made.
Investors should overcome their cold-water fears
Long-term valuations for European equities are attractive. They point to attractive entrance levels for long-term investors. Also, for global equities the short-term outlook remains constructive. Our overall tilt remains cyclical, but we took a more defensive stance.
About EMD Strategy & Outlook Q2