MarketScope
Market outlook is turning more positive
Partly due to the liquidity operations of the ECB, the euro stress abated somewhat. Measures to stimulate the (domestic) economy are however also necessary for the Eurozone to grow out of the crisis.
Eurozone lacks a strategy for growth
We remain convinced that policymakers will ultimately take the correct steps to solve the euro crisis, possibly as a forced response to periods of growing market turbulence.
Eurozone uncertainty persists
Political rather than economic events have been the dominant factor on the financial markets for the past few months. This means that political uncertainty will place further pressure on the economic outlook.
Future looking a bit brighter for debt crisis
In the wake of a very poor third quarter, the mood on the financial markets has improved slightly over the past few weeks. The main reason is that there are slightly higher hopes of a structural solution to the euro crisis.
Debt concerns continue to dent sentiment
The growth outlook for the global economy is very uncertain. The risk of a recession has increased to 40%, partly due to the negative sentiment on the financial markets and declining household and business confidence.
Fear of recession continues to grip the markets
As long as politicians – particularly in Europe – continue to display a lack of (significant) initiative, we will not expose ourselves to a huge amount of risk. We prefer AAA government bonds to corporate credits and equities.
Marketscope: Debt crisis continues to grip markets
The lack of a structural and credible solution to the European debt crisis poses huge downside risks for the markets and the economy alike. We are therefore reducing risk in our tactical asset allocation.
Marketscope: Investors not prepared to take risks
We believe that European policymakers will ultimately pull together on managing the Greek debt crisis. We also expect the slowdown in global economic growth to be temporary.
Senior Investment Specialist Ad van Tiggelen about Asset Allocation in October.